In national bestseller The Innovator's Dilemma, Clayton Christensen describes truly disruptive technology and why current market leaders almost never sustain their leadership in subsequent technological paradigms. Market leaders are focused on their customers' needs and will invest accordingly. Disruptive technology creates new niche markets. It is usually simpler, smaller, and at first, less powerful and more expensive. As the technology quickly advances, it begins to enter the turf of the market leader, but with a new value statement. At this point, market leaders realize the massive potential of the disruptive technology but do not want to cannibalize their existing high margin business with a new technology and value proposition. Ultimately, the old market leader faces difficult choices or will disappear completely.
Wearables may be all the rage these days but they are not disruptive. They are a new technology lead by existing market leaders, and promoted to the same customers with the same value proposition. Be more connected! More mobile with your technology! Automate more! Learn more about yourself and your world! These Wearable value propositions are unchanged from the laptop and smartphone paradigm. The devices are still designed in developed countries, built in developing countries, and shipped around the world in mass. One telltale sign Wearables are not disruptive is because they are lead by market leaders such as Google, Apple, and Samsung. Upstarts like The Ring are rare and their success is all but assured. Additionally, Wearables are becoming unnecessary because our stationary devices like beds, fridges, thermostats, etc as well as our phones are gaining all the sensors and functionality Wearables claim to provide. Lastly, technology market leaders refuse to accept a basic concept of fashion and wearing things; people want to be unique. They do not want to wear the same Apple Watch as all of their friends. Wearables will develop into a sizable market but will never be revolutionary and disruptive. I think the largest evidence Wearables aren't disruptive is that market leaders keep pushing them.
3D Printing, on the other hand, could possibly develop from a small market to a world-changing manufacturing paradigm shift that wrecks havoc on large companies around the world. It started as a tiny niche market manufacturing uniquely-shaped items at local facilities or in a house. These items were designed around the world and freely posted online. This humble beginning created a market with new value drivers. This market valued unique, local production, and open design. I believe the market has picked up an additional value driver: environmental friendliness. 3D printing uses plastics made from plant matter, is produced locally, and doesn't involve massive factories. Additionally, 3D printing is not based on the mass manufacturing principle of taking raw materials and stripping away at them until you have a design. Manufacturing market leaders have completely different value drivers. Speed/price of mass production, durability, and optimal proprietary design are some I can think of.
The Innovator's Dilemma states that market leaders sometimes develop their existing technology faster than demand dictates. In other words, current manufacturers can produce and ship high quality, durable, proprietary designs faster and better than is actually demanded. On the other hand, 3D printing cannot. However, as 3D printing develops and the technology improves, it may catch up to manufacturing demand. At this point, manufacturers will finally understand the value of 3D printing but will not want to cannibalize their existing business with design firms (example: Nike is the designer, the manufacturer is factory in China). Let's expand this example to explain how disastrous this is for market-leading manufacturers.
Thingyverse.com provides 3D designs for thousands of useful items such as a custom pipe part and computer stands. Perhaps one day soon, you will be able to 3D print an entire pair of shoes. Massive manufacturing supply chains comprised of companies that build factory equipment, ship finished goods and raw materials, and design proprietary products may crumble as 3D printing meets their customers' needs for inexpensiveness and durability but also provides uniqueness, local production, and an environmentally friendly product. Perhaps new laws and consumer preferences will make local environmentally friendly products the new norm.
The point is, you won't find world-changing disruptive technology in magazine or TV ads. You will find it in small circles and lean start ups. You will find it in new ideas that serve small obscure markets. So don't be deterred, you can change the world :)
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